Thursday, May 24, 2012

Reviewing The Arkansas Primary Results

by Katherine Vasilos and Megan Tollett, Republican Party of Arkansas: With the general election 166 days away, we wanted to share results from Tuesday’s Primary Election and some interesting takeaways to consider in the coming weeks and months.

Note: The following data was extracted from the Arkansas Secretary of State and the Associated Press and is to be viewed as approximate calculations.

Overall Results (Extracted May 24, 2012)
  • Ballots Casts: 335,670
  • Voter Turnout: 21.82%
  • Total registered voters in Arkansas: 1,538,623
  • Highest County Turnout (Top 5): Pulaski, Benton, Washington, Saline, Garland
  • Lowest County Turnout (Bottom 5): Newton, Union, Lafayette, Chicot, Montgomery
2012 Presidential Primary Results
  • Democratic Turnout: 163,493
  • Republican Turnout: 151,016
  • Total: 314,509
2012 Percentage of Primary Votes By Congressional District
  • CD1: 13.66%
  • CD2: 25.23%
  • CD3: 35.79%
  • CD4: 25.32%
2010 Arkansas Primary Results (Republican U.S. Senate Primary on Ballot)
  • Democratic Turnout: 335,400
  • Republican Turnout: 144,700
2002 Arkansas Primary Results (Republican U.S. Senate Primary on Ballot)
  • Democratic Turnout: 279,000
  • Republican Turnout: 92,000
1990 Arkansas Primary Results(Republican Gubernatorial Primary on Ballot)
  • Democratic Turnout: 491,000
  • Republican Turnout: 87,000
The narrative that primary voter turnout was unusually low this year is absolutely false. What we saw was that the Democratic Primary (not Republican) had an all time low turnout. Historically, Democratic turnout has been exponentially higher than Republican turnout. 2012’s close margin is indicative of the evolving political climate in Arkansas, the growth of the Republican Party at the local level and the power of President Obama’s failed presidency in influencing voter behavior.

Republican Presidential Primary Results
  • Mitt Romney: 103,164 votes, 68%
  • Ron Paul: 20,267 votes, 13%
  • Rick Santorum: 20,137 votes, 13%
  • Newt Gingrich: 7,448 votes, 5%
Mitt Romney by Congressional District
  • First: 68.03%
  • Second: 67.60%
  • Third: 67.39%
  • Fourth: 73.83%
Due to Governor Mitt Romney’s majorities in each congressional district and statewide, he will receive all of Arkansas’ 33 delegates and 33 alternates to the Republican National Convention. See delegate allocation rules here.

Democratic Presidential Primary Results
  • Barack Obama: 95,385 votes, 58%
  • John Wolfe: 68,108 votes, 42%

Barack Obama lost 36 out of 75 counties. (Map Guide: Obama is green, Wolfe is blue)
2012 Democratic Presidential Results Map

Additional Takeaways from Presidential Primary Results
  • In 2012, Republican voter turnout was up nearly 5 percent and Democratic turnout down 51 percent from 2010.
  • Mitt Romney received 7,779 more votes than President Obama.
  • President Obama lost over 40% of the vote (4 out of 10 Democrats) to an unknown challenger.
  • Many of the counties John Wolfe won are in “new” Republican territory. The anti-Obama voter in these counties will be beneficial to Republican candidates in down ballot races, most importantly in critical legislative contests. (Northeast and Southeast)
AR1 and AR4 Congressional Matchups and Chances
The days when Arkansas Democrats dominated federal races are long gone. The state Democratic Party’s inability to recruit quality candidates coupled with the albatross of President Obama and his failed economic policies will undoubtedly result in Arkansas’ congressional delegation becoming solidly red in November.

First Congressional District: Rep. Rick Crawford v. Unknown
  • Democratic Run-off June 12: Scott Ellington 50% (28,151 votes) v. Clark Hall 39% (22,049 votes)
  • Rothenberg Political Report Rating for AR1: Safe Republican (extracted 5/23)
  • In 2008, AR1 gave the McCain/Palin Ticket 58 percent.
Congressman Crawford has been a common sense conservative voice focusing on the agricultural industry which employs thousands of Arkansans in the First District. Rep. Crawford has demonstrated an uncompromising commitment to reversing the failed policies of Barack Obama which continue to pile mountains of debt on our children and grandchildren.

Fourth Congressional District: Tom Cotton v. Unknown
  • Democratic Run-off June 12: Gene Jeffress 43% (24,000 votes) v. Q. Byrum Hurst 36% (20,040 votes)
  • Rothenberg Political Report Rating for AR4: Safe Republican
  • In 2008, AR4 gave the McCain/Palin Ticket 60 percent.
  • In 2012, Republican voter turnout in the Fourth District was up roughly 52 percent and Democratic turnout down 56 percent from 2010 (see below). Note: Due to redistricting, the make-up of the Fourth District was slightly altered from 2010 to 2012.
2012 v 2010 Primary Voter Turnout in the Fourth Congressional District
  • 2010 Democratic 4th District Turnout: 121,000
  • 2012 Democratic 4th District Turnout: 53,000
  • 2010 Republican 4th District Turnout: 23,000
  • 2012 Republican 4th District Turnout: 35,000
Tom Cotton is a tested leader, military veteran and consistent conservative who will hold the Obama Administration accountable for their failure to put Americans back to work and reduce our nation’s debt and deficits. Tom Cotton is strong candidate, sixth-generation Arkansan, Harvard Law School graduate and Army veteran who served in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Quick Fact
  • When we re-elect Congressmen Rick Crawford (AR1), Tim Griffin (AR2) and Steve Womack (AR3) and elect Tom Cotton, our entire U.S. House Delegation will be military veterans.
To download a copy of the 2012 GOP Primary Elections Memo, click here.

Tags: Arkansas, Primary Results, Republican analysis, RPA,

1 comment:

Gene McVay said...

You think that's why Mike Ross wants to spend more time with his family?